Executive Summary

COCP remains pre-revenue and posted an EPS beat in Q4 2024: actual EPS of $(0.32) vs consensus $(0.53); EBITDA loss narrowed sequentially, reflecting lower opex and timing of R&D spend. Bolded beat below [GetEstimates*].
Cash and equivalents fell to $9.86M at year-end from $26.35M a year earlier; net cash used in operations for 2024 was $16.5M. Management reiterated pipeline milestones but flagged the need for additional capital over the next 12 months in the 10-K risk disclosure .
The Phase 2a influenza challenge study for oral PB2 inhibitor CC-42344 was extended due to unexpectedly low infection rates, delaying clinical efficacy readouts; CDI-988 (pan-viral protease inhibitor) advanced with multiple-ascending dose work and higher-dose cohort topline targeted in 1H25 .
Near-term catalysts: CDI-988 Phase 1 higher-dose topline in Q2 2025 and initiation of a U.S. norovirus human challenge study later in 2025; CC-42344 challenge study is planned to continue with protocol changes to secure adequate infection rates .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

EPS beat vs consensus in Q4 2024 as opex moderated; EBITDA losses narrowed sequentially. Management emphasized cost efficiency in prior updates: “we expect our cash will be sufficient to fund…through the coming 12 months” (Nov-2024). Bolded beat detailed below [GetEstimates*] .
Safety/tolerability maintained: CC-42344 Phase 2a showed “no SAEs and no drug-related discontinuations”; CDI-988 SAD/MAD cohorts reported favorable safety and tolerability at doses up to 800–1200 mg .
Scientific validation continued: CC-42344 demonstrated in vitro binding to highly conserved PB2 region of recent H5N1 avian strain; management highlighted platform capabilities and high barrier to resistance .

Quotes:

“Our novel, potent antiviral compounds for norovirus, influenza and coronavirus address critical gaps in global health…” — Sam Lee, Ph.D., President & Co-CEO (Mar-31-2025) .
“We are advancing our first- and best-in-class antiviral drug compounds…for these high-value viral targets…” — James Martin, CFO & Co-CEO (Mar-31-2025) .

What Went Wrong

Clinical execution challenge: CC-42344 Phase 2a needed enrollment extension due to a “low infectivity rate” in the challenge strain; virology results were “uninterpretable,” pushing efficacy timelines .
Liquidity pressure: year-end cash fell to $9.86M (from $26.35M); operating cash burn for 2024 was $16.5M; the auditor included a going concern emphasis, and management disclosed a need for additional capital over the next 12 months .
Program/partnering uncertainties: termination of Merck influenza A/B collaboration (Mar-2024) underscores external dependency risks and potential incremental costs/timing to advance programs independently .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenues ($USD Millions)	N/A	N/A	N/A
Net Income - (IS) ($USD Millions)	$(5.34)	$(4.94)	$(3.27)*
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(0.53)	$(0.49)	$(0.32)*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(5.42)*	$(5.01)*	$(3.20)*
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)	$5.45	$5.04	$3.23*
Cash And Equivalents (period-end, $USD Millions)	$18.14	$13.02	$9.86
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)	$(8.20) (6M)	$(13.30) (9M)	$(16.50) (FY)

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

EPS vs consensus and trend

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
EPS Actual ($)	$(0.53)	$(0.49)	$(0.32)*
EPS Consensus Mean ($)	$(0.477)*	$(0.57)*	$(0.53)*
Result vs Consensus	Miss*	Beat*	Beat*

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown

Single operating segment; no segment reporting .

KPIs

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)	$4.31	$3.24	N/A
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)	$1.14	$1.80	N/A
Working Capital ($USD Millions)	$17.00	$12.30	$9.15

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
CC-42344 (oral) Phase 2a topline	2024 YE	Topline by year-end 2024	Enrollment extended; virology uninterpretable; study to continue with protocol amendment	Lowered (timing delayed)
CC-42344 (inhaled) Phase 1 start	2025	Expect to begin Phase 1 in Australia in 2025	Plan remains to initiate Phase 1 in 2025	Maintained
CDI-988 Phase 1 topline	Late 2024 / Early 2025	Topline late 2024 or early 2025	Higher-dose cohort topline expected in Q2 2025	Lowered (pushed into 1H25)
Norovirus human challenge study	2025	Not previously specified	Plan to initiate U.S. human challenge study later in 2025	New item (added)
Cash runway	12 months (as of Q3)	Cash sufficient for ~12 months	10-K discloses need for additional capital to fund operations over next 12 months	Lowered (risk heightened)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was found in the document catalog (none listed for COCP in the period queried).

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
R&D execution (influenza)	Expect Phase 2a topline by YE 2024	Low infectivity; enrollment extended; efficacy endpoints delayed	Negative (timing delay)
R&D execution (norovirus/coronavirus)	CDI-988 advancing to MAD; topline late 2024/early 2025	Higher-dose cohort topline anticipated Q2 2025	Slight delay; still progressing
Platform validation (H5N1)	In vitro activity vs H5N1 PB2 and structural binding notes	Continued emphasis on binding to conserved PB2; high barrier to resistance	Positive validation
Regulatory/macro	FDA Pre-IND feedback improved clarity for U.S. late-stage study	10-K flags potential impacts from tariffs, staffing at agencies, and geopolitical volatility	Macro risk rising
Liquidity	Cash sufficient for 12 months (Q3)	Need for additional capital disclosed (10-K)	Deteriorating liquidity outlook

Management Commentary

“We plan to initiate a norovirus human challenge study in the U.S. later this year to evaluate our pan-viral protease inhibitor CDI-988…” — Sam Lee, Ph.D. (Mar-31-2025) .
“We are optimistic that our oral PB2 inhibitor CC-42344 will have potential as a treatment for seasonal influenza A… Following the unexpected low infection rate… we plan to continue the influenza challenge study.” — Sam Lee, Ph.D. (Mar-31-2025) .
“News coverage in recent months of norovirus and avian flu outbreaks underscore the urgent need for new antiviral solutions.” — James Martin (Mar-31-2025) .
“We’re disappointed by the low infectivity rate… The low infectivity obtained in this study hindered antiviral data analysis… We are working… to extend enrollment… and ensure necessary infection rates.” — Sam Lee, Ph.D. (Dec-31-2024) .

Q&A Highlights

No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available; therefore, there are no management Q&A highlights to report for the quarter (no transcripts found for COCP in the period queried).

Estimates Context

Q4 2024 EPS beat: $(0.32) actual vs $(0.53) consensus; prior quarter (Q3 2024) also beat, while Q2 2024 missed; revenue consensus remains $0 given pre-revenue status. Bolded outcomes in table above [GetEstimates*].
Target price consensus remained at $8.00 through Q2–Q4 2024; consensus recommendation text unavailable; with near-term clinical catalysts pending, estimate dispersion could increase if timelines change [GetEstimates*].

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

EPS beat in Q4 2024 and narrowing EBITDA loss reflect disciplined opex, but this is not a revenue-driven beat; durability depends on cost control while clinical programs advance [GetEstimates*].
CC-42344 timelines slipped due to challenge-model infectivity; expect protocol amendment and continued study—watch for revised timelines and any design changes that improve virology endpoints .
CDI-988 is the nearer-term catalyst: higher-dose topline targeted Q2 2025; a clean safety/tolerability profile and any virology signals would be stock-moving .
Liquidity is a central overhang: year-end cash of $9.86M and 10-K going concern emphasis imply near-term financing risk; prepare for potential equity issuance/dilution .
Platform/data continuity remains favorable: continued validation vs H5N1 PB2 supports the influenza program’s rationale despite timing delays .
Estimate revisions: expect modest upward EPS adjustments near term if opex runs below prior expectations; conversely, delays to CC-42344 could temper longer-term valuation until visibility improves [GetEstimates*].
Trading lens: near-term price action likely tied to 1H25 CDI-988 readout and financing trajectory; extension of CC-42344 challenge study reduces near-term influenza efficacy optionality, shifting focus to norovirus/coronavirus program .

Sources:

Q4/FY 2024 8-K Press Release and financial tables (Mar-31-2025) .
Q3 2024 8-K Press Release and financial tables (Nov-13-2024) .
Q2 2024 8-K Press Release and financial tables (Aug-14-2024) .
Dec-31-2024 press release and 8-K regarding CC-42344 Phase 2a extension .
Oct-31-2024 8-K platform/H5N1 update .
FY 2024 10-K (Mar-31-2025), business, risk, and liquidity disclosures .
S&P Global estimates and actuals for EPS/EBITDA/targets and certain quarterly metrics [GetEstimates*] [GetFinancials*].

Values marked with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. (COCP)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary